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The reprieve brought by the ceasefire in Gaza is profound. Across Israel, the liberation of surviving detainees has led to broad celebration. Throughout Gaza and the West Bank, festivities are taking place as up to 2,000 Palestinian detainees begin their release – although distress lingers due to uncertainty about who is being freed and their eventual placements. Across northern Gaza, people can finally go back to sift through wreckage for the remnants of an approximated 10,000 missing people.

Truce Development Despite Prior Uncertainty

As recently as three weeks ago, the likelihood of a ceasefire looked improbable. However it has taken effect, and on Monday Donald Trump journeyed from Jerusalem, where he was applauded in the Knesset, to Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt. There, he participated in a high-powered peace conference of more than 20 world leaders, featuring Sir Keir Starmer. The peace initiative begun there is set to advance at a conference in the UK. The US president, working alongside international partners, managed to secure this deal happen – regardless of, not due to, Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Palestinian Statehood Hopes Tempered by Past Precedents

Hopes that the deal represents the initial move toward Palestinian statehood are understandable – but, considering previous instances, somewhat optimistic. It provides no definite route to sovereignty for Palestinians and endangers dividing, for the near term, Gaza from the West Bank. Then there is the total ruin this war has produced. The absence of any timeline for Palestinian self-governance in the US initiative gives the lie to vainglorious allusions, in his Knesset speech, to the “historic dawn” of a “age of abundance”.

The American leader was unable to refrain from polarising and making personal the deal in his speech.

In a period of respite – with the freeing of captives, halt in fighting and renewal of aid – he decided to reinterpret it as a morality play in which he exclusively restored Israel’s dignity after supposed betrayal by previous American leaders Obama and Biden. Notwithstanding the Biden administration a year ago having attempted a analogous arrangement: a ceasefire tied to aid delivery and ultimate political talks.

Genuine Autonomy Essential for Sustainable Agreement

A plan that withholds one side meaningful agency cannot produce sustainable agreement. The halt in hostilities and relief shipments are to be welcomed. But this is still not diplomatic advancement. Without mechanisms guaranteeing Palestinian involvement and command over their own establishments, any deal risks freezing domination under the language of peace.

Aid Necessities and Rebuilding Obstacles

Gaza’s people urgently require humanitarian aid – and food and medicines must be the primary focus. But restoration must not be delayed. Among 60 million tonnes of debris, Palestinians need support reconstructing dwellings, learning institutions, medical centers, religious buildings and other organizations shattered by Israel’s invasion. For Gaza’s provisional leadership to thrive, monetary resources must be disbursed rapidly and security gaps be filled.

Similar to much of Donald Trump's diplomatic proposal, allusions to an international stabilisation force and a proposed “peace council” are disturbingly unclear.

Worldwide Endorsement and Prospective Outcomes

Strong worldwide endorsement for the Palestinian leadership, allowing it to take over from Hamas, is likely the most hopeful scenario. The enormous suffering of the past two years means the ethical argument for a solution to the conflict is arguably more critical than ever. But even as the ceasefire, the homecoming of the hostages and commitment by Hamas to “disarm” Gaza should be recognized as favorable developments, the president's record offers minimal cause to believe he will deliver – or feel bound to endeavor. Short-term relief should not be interpreted as that the likelihood of a Palestinian state has been moved nearer.