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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple pattern. It commonly functions as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic improvement is handed the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or merely the most shocking surprise.

Yet the latest competition is distinctly different. The list of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been messy, with recent conference winners falling away and longtime also-rans improving in unison. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in such a chaotic and thrilling season, he's competing with several other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical vote could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his special talent. From Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to spin big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the immense hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current isn't a normal year!

Where his case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained success. But he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a given following his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, he hired first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial hot start, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

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