Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each composes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
